空难后东航停飞全部737-800机型

China Eastern Grounds All Boeing 737-800 Jets After Crash 
A Boeing Co. 737-800 NG plane operated by China Eastern Airlines Corp. crashed Monday in southwestern China. 132 people were on board. The airline has now grounded all of its Boeing 737-800 jets. Brooke Sutherland of Bloomberg Opinion speaks on "Bloomberg Markets."
Bloomberg Markets and Finance. 2022.3.22
tags: 新闻 航空 东航 经济 贸易
主要角色
  • 布鲁克·萨瑟兰 Brooke Sutherland

    彭博社产业新闻专栏作者
内容
  • 英中
  • 中英
  • 盲听
  • 1

    Brooke, we don't know what caused this crash yet, but from a Boeing perspective while that matters, what does this mean for them and their place in china?

  • 2

    Sure, I just want to reiterate what you said, you know, that there's still a lot that we don't know now.

  • 3

    But it does seem relevant to me that, you know, in the aftermath of this you've seen that airline China Eastern ground its entire 737-800 NG fleet.

  • 4

    And so that seems to me to signal, you know, an attitude of, you know, blunt instruments when aviation safety is concerned while we wait for some of these facts to come out.

  • 5

    And I think given that you do have to wonder what this does for the timeline of the Max resuming commercial flight in China.

  • 6

    And allowing Boeing to resume deliveries to that country to your point, this is a different model, this is not the Max which has just gone through a very rigorous recertification process following those two crashes.

  • 7

    But I think you know China is looking to be, you know a more respectable authority, as far as aviation safety is concerned, they were the first to ground the max in the wake of those two crashes.

  • 8

    And you have to think that they would take a very careful approach. From here.

  • 9

    Brooke, not to minimize the human impact of the crash, but let's talk about that regulatory, kind of standpoint when it comes to China.

  • 10

    What is perhaps the worst case scenario here? when it comes to Boeing and China kind of getting back on the same page⁽¹⁾.

  • 11

    You don't have Boeing stock for example down five and a half percent, can you speak to a little bit about what the consequences are?

  • 12

    I think the concern is if you are not delivering planes to China, it becomes very difficult to clear out that inventory of Max jets that Boeing built up.

  • 13

    During the course of the grounding as of january they had about 335 undelivered Max jets in their inventory.

  • 14

    And if you can't clear out that stockpile, then it raises questions of well how do you justify that 31 jets a month production pace that Boeing was targeting for early 2022.

  • 15

    It's just hard to see how you get there without China demand, China deliveries.

  • 16

    We have seen of course you know other airlines, increasing their orders, this is a much better aerospace market than it was even just six months ago.

  • 17

    But you need China! if you're Boeing, and so you know I think any kind of delay there does raise question marks just about the timing of that pace.

  • 18

    And the reason why that's important is we've seen the aerospace supply chain already struggling to ramp up output.

  • 19

    As they come out of the covid doldrums, you have labor issues you have casting and forging issues. And you know it's very important to have a clear timeline as you try to work through all those.

  • 20

    Just to wrap this conversation up, the NG historically statistically is a very safe airplane, isn't it just briefly broke. - Yes it is, absolutely I mean this is the previous generation before the Max it's been around for 25 years.

  • 21

    It has a very very good safety record, you know there's no known problems with this plane, and you know like I said there's still a lot that we have to learn about what exactly happened here.

  • 22

    But it seems you know unlikely that there would be systemic issues just based on what we know so far, but we'll learn a lot more in the days to come.

  • 1

    布鲁克,我们还不知道坠机的原因,但从波音的角度来看,这对他们和他们在中国的地位意味着什么?

  • 2

    当然,我只是想重申你所说的,你知道,我们现在还有很多不知道的。

  • 3

    但这似乎与我有关,你看,事件发生之后,你看到中国东方航空公司停飞了整个737-800 NG机队。

  • 4

    所以在我看来,这是一个信号,一种态度,在我们等待真相大白的时候,携钝器登机也会成为航空安全的担忧。

  • 5

    考虑到这一点,你一定会想这对737 Max复飞中国商业航班的时间线有什么影响。

  • 6

    至于你的观点,关于允许波音公司向该国家恢复供货,这可是另一种模式,这不是737Max,737Max在那两次坠机之后刚刚通过了一个非常严格的重新认证程序。

  • 7

    但我认为,中国正在寻求成为一个更受尊敬的权威,就航空安全而言,他们是第一个在发生两起事故后停飞737Max的。

  • 8

    你不得不认为他们会采取非常谨慎的方法。以上是来自我的报道。

  • 9

    布鲁克,并非要把这次空难对人类的影响降到最低,但让我们谈谈中国的监管立场。

  • 10

    最坏的情况可能是什么?当涉及到波音和中国时,似乎回到了一致的立场。

  • 11

    比如波音公司的股价没有下跌5.5%,你能说一下是什么后果吗?

  • 12

    我认为问题在于,如果你不向中国交付飞机,就很难清空波音公司的737Max库存。

  • 13

    截至1月份,在停飞期间,他们的库存中有大约335架737Max飞机没有交付。

  • 14

    如果你不能清空这些库存,那么就会产生这样的问题:你如何证明波音计划在2022年初实现的每月31架飞机的生产速度是合理的。

  • 15

    如果没有中国的需求和向中国的交付,很难看到你如何做到这一点。

  • 16

    我们看到其他航空公司的订单也在增加,现在的航空市场比6个月前要好得多。

  • 17

    但你需要中国这个客户!如果你是波音公司的话,我认为任何形式的延迟都会给这个节奏的掌控打上问号。

  • 18

    这一点之所以重要,是因为我们已经看到航空供应链已经在努力提高产量。

  • 19

    当他们走出疫情的低迷,你还有劳工问题、铸造和锻造问题。你知道,当你试图解决所有这些问题时,有一个明确的时间表是非常重要的。

  • 20

    总结一下,从历史数据上看,737NG是一架非常安全的飞机,它只是短暂地出了问题。 - 是的,这是绝对的,我的意思是这是在737Max之前的上一代机型,它已经运转了25年。

  • 21

    它有非常好的安全记录,你知道这架飞机没有已知的问题,你知道,就像我说的,关于这里到底发生了什么,我们还有很多需要了解的。

  • 22

    但就目前所知,不太可能会出现系统性问题,但在未来的日子里,我们会了解更多。